Probabilistic Risk Analysis of a Substation

What is the overall probability of failure?

… compute the exact probability of failure for full or partial failure modes, enabling better system planning.

How can the system fail?

What are the root causes of failure, and their probabilities?

… predictively determine the full set of failure modes, and their probabilities. Managers will be able to make more efficient resilience investments.

Which assets contribute most toward the system’s failure risk? (transformers, switches, capacitor banks, conductors, generators, etc.)

… identify the specific assets that most contribute to the risk state of the system and quantify the risk reduction benefit from inspections and replacements.

What external risk initiators are most important? (inclement weather, seismic hazards, sabotage, etc.)

… determine the external sources of risk for which operators should apply resources to mitigate.

How should the next available O&M or capital dollar be applied to ensure maximum system resilience and minimize failure risk?

… produce optimal O&M and capital spend policies which mathematically guarantees that risk costs are maximally reduced in the most efficient manner possible.

What is the expected loss (in dollars) from system risks, and what is the best way to maximally mitigate this risk to ensure the highest quality of service?

… deliver a complete quantitative characterization of system risk, including full risk distributions in dollars, which provide intuitive decision-making support.