SWIM Wildfire Prediction Performance
Last updated:Number Of Correct SWIM Predictions
Number Of Wildfire Predictions
How prediction accuracy is measured
SWIM success requires predictions that satisfy two conditions:
- SWIM’s 90th percentile predicted wildfire perimeter encompasses a wildfire’s actual final perimeter.
- SWIM's predicted wildfire perimeter exceeds a shape geometry similarity threshold with respect to the actual final perimeter.
Condition (1) mandates that SWIM predict the correct burn areas, while condition (2) serves as a control mechanism to prevent arbitrarily large estimations.
Together, SWIM is judged on the accuracy and usefulness of its predictions.
SWIM accuracy is measured as the proportion of times both conditions are satisfied.
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