Stochastic Wildfire Impact Model (SWIM) Accuracy

Stochastic Wildfire Impact Model (SWIM)

Predicting Wildfire Like an Epidemic

SWIM is a cutting-edge wildfire modeling tool that uses epidemic-inspired
stochastic simulations to predict how wildfires are likely to spread across
the landscape, based on real-world environmental conditions.

SWIM Wildfire Prediction Performance
Live and Historical Predictions

Last updated:2026-06-05 @ 9:00 p.m. UTC

Number Of Wildfire Predictions

Number Of Correct SWIM Predictions

SWIM Total WildFire Prediction Accuracy

SWIM’s Current Accuracy is:

Accuracy is measured as the number of times SWIM’s 90th percentile predicted wildfire perimeter encompasses a wildfire’s actual final perimeter.

Current SWIM Active Wildfire Predictions
Historical SWIM Wildfire Assessment

Ignition Point 42.19088286, -113.72119376, Idaho

Containment % 85.00%

Current Acreage 3,028.30

ATS SWIM Predictions

Last SWIM Prediction Time 2026-06-05 @ 10:01 p.m. UTC

Average Estimated Acreage 3,128.30

Estimated Max Monetary Impact $1,916,332.29

Current wildfire perimeter

SWIM estimated final wildfire perimeter, 90th percentile confidence

Ignition Point 36.50357519, -96.41456134, Oklahoma

Final Acreage 301.62

ATS SWIM Predictions

Initial SWIM Prediction Time 2026-03-03 @ 5:01 p.m. UTC

Wildfire Containment at Initial Prediction Time Not Provided by NIFC

Average Estimated Acreage at Initial Prediction Time 1,357.60

Estimated Max Monetary Impact at Initial Prediction Time $1,288,560.46

Final wildfire perimeter

SWIM estimated final wildfire perimeter, 90th percentile confidence