SWIM is a cutting-edge wildfire modeling tool that uses epidemic-inspired stochastic simulations to predict how wildfires are likely to spread across the landscape, based on real-world environmental conditions.
SWIM Wildfire Prediction Performance
Live and Historical Predictions
Last updated:
Number Of Wildfire Predictions
0
Number Of Correct SWIM Predictions
0
SWIM Total WildFire Prediction Accuracy
Our Current Accuracy Is:
0%
Accuracy is measured as the number of times SWIM’s 90th percentile predicted wildfire perimeter encompasses a wildfire’s actual final perimeter.
Initial SWIM Prediction Time2025-01-01 @ 12:00 a.m. UTC
Wildfire Containment at Initial Prediction Time2.00%
Average Estimated Acreage at Initial Prediction Time22,123.42
Estimated Max Monetary Impact at Initial Prediction Time$13,795,160.52
Final wildfire perimeter
SWIM estimated final wildfire perimeter, 90th percentile confidence
Cold Creek
Final NIFC Reported Figures
Wildfire Discovery Time2021-06-14 @ 4:00 p.m. UTC
Wildfire End Time2021-07-13 @ 12:00 a.m. UTC
Ignition Point42.72551882, -112.84123998, Idaho
Final Acreage122.32
ATS SWIM Predictions
Initial SWIM Prediction Time2025-01-01 @ 12:00 a.m. UTC
Wildfire Containment at Initial Prediction Time2.00%
Average Estimated Acreage at Initial Prediction Time2,213.84
Estimated Max Monetary Impact at Initial Prediction Time$715,139.91
Final wildfire perimeter
SWIM estimated final wildfire perimeter, 90th percentile confidence
BLACK
Final NIFC Reported Figures
Wildfire Discovery Time2019-06-29 @ 1:00 a.m. UTC
Wildfire End Time2019-08-15 @ 4:00 a.m. UTC
Ignition Point33.17149772, -107.89190369, New Mexico
Final Acreage1,535.38
ATS SWIM Predictions
Initial SWIM Prediction Time2025-01-01 @ 12:00 a.m. UTC
Wildfire Containment at Initial Prediction Time2.00%
Average Estimated Acreage at Initial Prediction Time3,061.29
Estimated Max Monetary Impact at Initial Prediction Time$2,020,056.74
Final wildfire perimeter
SWIM estimated final wildfire perimeter, 90th percentile confidence
Fork
Final NIFC Reported Figures
Wildfire Discovery Time2025-09-16 @ 7:01 p.m. UTC
Wildfire End Time2025-09-16 @ 10:11 p.m. UTC
Ignition Point32.36480758, -97.53178742, Texas
Final Acreage97.02
ATS SWIM Predictions
Initial SWIM Prediction Time2025-09-17 @ 6:01 a.m. UTC
Wildfire Containment at Initial Prediction Time5.00%
Average Estimated Acreage at Initial Prediction Time1,603.75
Estimated Max Monetary Impact at Initial Prediction Time$2,582,417.47
Final wildfire perimeter
SWIM estimated final wildfire perimeter, 90th percentile confidence
WILDCAT
Final NIFC Reported Figures
Wildfire Discovery Time2025-08-25 @ 11:48 p.m. UTC
Wildfire End Time2025-09-25 @ 2:18 p.m. UTC
Ignition Point46.85104627, -121.37245853, Washington
Final Acreage16,318.06
ATS SWIM Predictions
Initial SWIM Prediction Time2025-08-26 @ 10:53 a.m. UTC
Wildfire Containment at Initial Prediction Time2.00%
Average Estimated Acreage at Initial Prediction Time7,208.51
Estimated Max Monetary Impact at Initial Prediction Time$6,861,654.33
Final wildfire perimeter
SWIM estimated final wildfire perimeter, 90th percentile confidence
Jumping Eagle
Final NIFC Reported Figures
Wildfire Discovery Time2025-09-08 @ 7:08 p.m. UTC
Wildfire End Time2025-09-09 @ 12:58 a.m. UTC
Ignition Point43.29072166, -102.46331222, South Dakota
Final Acreage614.68
ATS SWIM Predictions
Initial SWIM Prediction Time2025-09-09 @ 7:11 a.m. UTC
Wildfire Containment at Initial Prediction Time2.00%
Average Estimated Acreage at Initial Prediction Time2,594.66
Estimated Max Monetary Impact at Initial Prediction Time$5,473,304.41
Final wildfire perimeter
SWIM estimated final wildfire perimeter, 90th percentile confidence
LA PALOMA
Final NIFC Reported Figures
Wildfire Discovery Time2022-03-18 @ 12:00 a.m. UTC
Wildfire End Time2022-05-02 @ 10:00 a.m. UTC
Ignition Point26.30962050, -98.60726476, Texas
Final Acreage1,733.60
ATS SWIM Predictions
Initial SWIM Prediction Time2025-01-01 @ 12:00 a.m. UTC
Wildfire Containment at Initial Prediction Time2.00%
Average Estimated Acreage at Initial Prediction Time2,261.76
Estimated Max Monetary Impact at Initial Prediction Time$8,527,690.87
Final wildfire perimeter
SWIM estimated final wildfire perimeter, 90th percentile confidence
Backbone
Final NIFC Reported Figures
Wildfire Discovery Time2025-09-04 @ 12:23 a.m. UTC
Wildfire End Time2025-09-25 @ 12:09 p.m. UTC
Ignition Point42.69650000, -123.94588300, Oregon
Final Acreage4,033.48
ATS SWIM Predictions
Initial SWIM Prediction Time2025-09-04 @ 3:50 p.m. UTC
Wildfire Containment at Initial Prediction TimeNot Provided by NIFC
Average Estimated Acreage at Initial Prediction Time3,044.04
Estimated Max Monetary Impact at Initial Prediction Time$3,937,437.28
Final wildfire perimeter
SWIM estimated final wildfire perimeter, 90th percentile confidence
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Travis Trammell
Ph.D. President and Chief Engineer
Dr. Kim has extensive experience in risk analysis of complex engineered systems. In addition, he has experience working as a space systems engineer for the United States Air Force where he led the development of an advanced command and control system for the next generation space protection infrastructure for U.S. space forces. Dr. Kim has a B.S. in Mathematics from the University of California, Los Angeles; an M.B.A. from California State University, Long Beach; an M.S. in Systems Engineering from the Naval Postgraduate School; and a Ph.D. in Management Science and Engineering from Stanford University.
Richard Kim
Ph.D. President and Chief Engineer
Dr. Kim has extensive experience in risk analysis of complex engineered systems. In addition, he has experience working as a space systems engineer for the United States Air Force where he led the development of an advanced command and control system for the next generation space protection infrastructure for U.S. space forces. Dr. Kim has a B.S. in Mathematics from the University of California, Los Angeles; an M.B.A. from California State University, Long Beach; an M.S. in Systems Engineering from the Naval Postgraduate School; and a Ph.D. in Management Science and Engineering from Stanford University.