SWIM Total WildFire Prediction Accuracy
SWIM’s Current Accuracy is:
0%
Stochastic Wildfire Impact Model (SWIM)
Predicting Wildfire Like an Epidemic
SWIM is a cutting-edge wildfire modeling tool that uses epidemic-inspired
stochastic simulations to predict how wildfires are likely to spread across
the landscape, based on real-world environmental conditions.
Stochastic epidemic spread model – widely
used by epidemiologists to predict disease
outcomes.
SWIM’s wildfire spread model – built using
similar stochastic dynamics and informed by
geophysical and weather data.
ATS’ SWIM is rigorously tested for accuracy against active wildfires in the United States
Accuracy is measured as the number of times SWIM’s 90th percentile predicted wildfire perimeter encompasses a wildfire’s actual final perimeter.
Inspired by Epidemiology, Engineered for Wildfire
We use the same mathematics that predict disease outbreaks to forecast the path of wildfire.
Epidemic Model Insight
- The single greatest predictor for whether you will be infected by a disease is whether someone near you is infected.
- Epidemiologists have refined tools over decades, rooted in probabilistic spread models, to assess and mitigate disease risk.
- These tools use stochastic simulations to represent uncertainties in disease transmission outcomes.
The SWIM Breakthrough
- At Aerospace Technical Services (ATS), we have taken this proven modeling approach and applied it to wildfire.
- Our Stochastic Wildfire Impact Model (SWIM) predicts how a wildfire is likely to spread given an ignition point and real-world variables.
- SWIM is a U.S.-wide, high-resolution model that can be applied anywhere in the country.
Why Stochastic Modeling?
Because Wildfire Is Uncertain – Just Like Disease Spread
| Epidemic Models | SWIM Wildfire Models |
|---|---|
|
Use random sampling of disease
transmission likelihoods |
Use random sampling of wildfire spread likelihoods |
|
Factor in individual-level data (age, health, exposure) |
Factor in geospatial data (fuel moisture, elevation, wind, slope, etc.) |
|
Perform millions of simulations to build infection risk maps |
Perform millions of simulations to build wildfire impact probability maps |
We don’t just show one fire forecast. We show the range of possible futures and how likely each one is.
What Sets SWIM Apart?
Fine-Scale Resolution
Most wildfire models operate on large grid cells. SWIM models use 0.2-acre polygons – allowing fine-grained accuracy that matters for risk modeling.
Data-Rich Simulations
SWIM integrates wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity, elevation, fuel composition, moisture, and more. It’s powered by millions of wildfire records and terrain data.
Probabilistic Risk Outputs
Instead of a single deterministic forecast, SWIM outputs a distribution of outcomes – critical for utilities, insurers, and emergency responders.
Nationwide Coverage
SWIM is built to scale. From California to Florida, SWIM can simulate fire behavior anywhere in the U.S. given an ignition point.
Applications of SWIM
- Identify and mitigate wildfire risk from overhead assets
- Evaluate tradeoffs in mitigation investments
- Regulators and Planners
- Prioritize fuel reduction and firebreak efforts
- Develop zoning or evacuation plans informed by probabilistic wildfire pathways
- Risk Analysts and Insurers
- Incorporate fine-grained wildfire spread probabilities into actuarial models
- Quantify monetized risk under different mitigation strategies
- Agriculture
- Optimize crop and livestock protection strategies based on wildfire spread forecasts
- Assess tradeoffs between fire-resilient practices and operational costs
- Real Estate & Property Management
- Evaluate wildfire risk for prospective developments and acquisitions
- Incorporate probabilistic fire spread into property valuation and insurance negotiations
